改进的加权不等时距灰色IMUGM(1,m,ω)模型及其应用

Consumption Forecasting of Missile Spare Parts Based on Improved IMUGM(1,m,ω)

针对传统的灰色预测模型的缺陷,提出了改进的多因素不等时距加权灰色预测模型.首先,以引入加权因子ω的方式建立多因素不等时距加权灰色模型,再通过初始值改进、残差修正以及新陈代谢思想相结合的方式对模型进行改进;然后结合实际消耗数据,依据欧氏距离、隶属度权值等模型,实现备件消耗预测,实例仿真及分析验证了方法的有效性.

In order to overcome the shortages of the traditional unequal interval grey model,a new forecast method based on improved multi-variables metabolism unequal interval weighted grey model （IMUGM（1, m, w）） model is proposed. Firstly, multi-variables unequal interval weight grey model is built by introducing weight gene and optimization, residual error correction and metabolism. Then the measurement data, Euclid distances, degree of membership and performance degradation model are updated with real-time measurement data. The result of simulating practical missile equipment consumption forecasting and analysis validates the validity.