基于灰色马尔科夫链预测模型的广西边境小额贸易预测研究——灰色系统理论应用系列论文之三

The Prediction of Guangxi Border Trade base on Grey Markov Chain Forecasting Model——The third paper in series article of grey system theory and application

在分析广西边境小额贸易现状的基础上,运用灰色模型和马尔科夫链的基本理论,构建灰色马尔科夫模型进行了预测.结果表明,经过二阶弱化处理、灰色建模、灰色新陈代谢以及灰色马尔科夫预测的结果,能明显地提高预测精度.最后,提出了加大基础设施建设、转变边贸流通模式、构建沿边型产业开放体系、提高边境贸易便利化水平和培育发展边境特色经济带等对策建议.

Based on the analysis of Guangxi border trade on the use of the basic theory of gray model and Markov chain, Guangxi border trade volume was gray modeling, metabolism and Grey Markov. The prediction results show gray Markov model can significantly improve the prediction accuracy, increase the reliability of forecasts. Finally, this paper proposes the construction of infrastructure, border circulation patterns change, build border industries open system, improve border trade facilitation and foster the development of countermeasures border economic zone and other characteristics.