铁路货运需求影响因素研究——以美国为例

Study on Influential Factors of Railway Freight Demand:Taking the USA As an Example

铁路货运需求受供给侧因素和需求侧因素共同影响,供给侧因素主要包括铁路货运技术、综合运输体系和国家运输政策,需求侧因素主要包括GDP、人均GDP、产业结构、城镇化水平、经济地理和经济周期。基于美国经验分析,本文得出如下结论 :第一,受城市化、人均GDP、经济增长、经济地理等因素影响我国铁路货运需求长期仍将保持上升趋势,需进一步扩大铁路网来满足未来更大货运需求。第二,我国铁路领域虽然实现了政企分离,但是铁路总公司仍未能成为真正意义上的市场主体,需继续推动铁路领域的市场化改革,提高铁路货运市场竞争力。

Railway freight demand is affected by demand-side and supply-side factors. Supply-side factors include railway freight technology, comprehensive transportation systems and the national transport policy. Demand-side factors cover GDP, per capita GDP, industrial structure, urbanization level, economic geography and economic cycle. According to America empirical analysis, this paper presents following conclusions： First, railway freight demand which is affected by urbanization, per capita GDP, economic growth, economic geography and so on in China will continue to rise in the long run. So railway network should be further expanded to meet more freight demand in the future. Second, government-enterprise separation in the railway sector has been carried out, but China Railways Corporation still isn＇t a real market entity. We should continue to promote the market-oriented reform in the railway sector and improve the market competitiveness of railway freight.