中国OFDI对国内投资的影响:挤出还是挤入

The Effect of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Domestic Investment:Crowd out or Crowd in

迅速增长的对外直接投资对国内投资产生了怎样的影响,是关系到我国经济发展的重要问题。本文采用国民经济16个产业的动态面板数据,通过系统GMM方法检验了对外直接投资是挤出还是挤入了国内投资,以及金融市场和产品市场在其中发挥的作用。研究发现:对外直接投资本身会挤出国内投资,高效的金融市场和发达的产品市场可以削弱这种挤出效应,其中产品市场的作用尤为重要;当对外直接投资能够带动国内出口或者转移过剩产能时,会挤入国内投资,这种情况主要发生在房地产业和制造业,服务业的对外直接投资则更多地挤出了国内投资;目前我国对外直接投资对国内投资的净效应依然为挤出效应,因此,适宜的对外直接投资产业政策以及发育良好的金融市场和产品市场是发挥对外直接投资促进国内经济发展作用的重要基础。

What effects does the increasing outward Foreign Direct Investment（OFDI） have on China＇s domestic investment？ It is an important issue for Chinese economy. This paper employs a dynamic panel model of 16 industries data to investigate whether China＇s OFDI crowd out or crowd in its domestic investment, as well as the role of financial market and product market. We find that OFDI exerts a crowding- out effect. However, efficient financial market and well- developed product market will alleviate the negative effect, and the product market plays a much more important role. When OFDI can increase export or reduce overcapacity, it crowds in domestic investment, which mainly happens in the industries of real estate and manufacturing. In service industries OFDI has more severe crowding-out effect. The net effect of OFDI on domestic investment is negative. Therefore, appropriate OFDI policy, well- developed financial market and product market are the important basis for OFDI to exert positive effect on domestic economy.