金融危机成因研究——一般理论及对中国加入WTO之后的现实解释

A Study on the Causes of Financial Crisis——General Theories and an Explanation on the Reality in China after Entering WTO

金融危机发生的原因具有复杂性和多样性。从不同角度对金融危机生成原因和演绎路径的研究 ,对不同经济体、不同时期的金融危机具有一定的解释力。第一代货币危机理论强调实际经济因素导致危机出现的关键作用 ,而第二代货币危机理论更注重危机的随机性以及不确定性。基于金融中介的危机理论解释了银行业危机生发、演化的具体机理。新兴市场经济国家的金融危机具有与发展的初始条件和选择的制度改革与演化路径有关的特定原因 ,在一定意义上也可称为外资导致的危机。金融市场全球化背景下的金融危机具有不容忽略的国际传递性。加入WTO之后 ,中国金融领域对外开放的深度与广度都将以不可逆转的方式进行 ,出现金融危机的可能性也比“入世”之前更大 ,危机的发生与演化将具有更为复杂的原因。

The causes of financial crisis are both complicated and diversified.Studies on the causes and evolving path of financial crisis from different angles do have certain explanations for financial crisis in different economic entities and in different periods of time.The first-generation currency crisist models lay stresses on the key role of actual economic fundamentals in causing the crisis,while the second-generation models put more emphasis on the randomness and uncertainty of financial crisis.The crisis theories based on financial intermediaries explain the specific mechanism of the occurence and evolutin of banking crisis.Financial crisis in the countries of emerging market economy carries the characteristic causes which are relevant to the initial conditions and the selected institutional reform as well as the evolving path.To some extent it can also be called foreign capital flow-induced financial crisis.In the era of the globalization of financial market,the internatinal transfer of financial crisis cannot be ignored.After entering WTO,the depth and scope of opening financial markets to foreign countries will continue in irreversible ways,the possibility of occurrence of financial crisis will increase,the appearance and evolution of crisis will have more complicated causes.