基于地统计法的稻纵卷叶螟时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal characteristics of rice leaf rollers (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) based on geostatistics method

为了研究稻纵卷叶螟的时空变化特征,利用2013年中国南方稻区稻纵卷叶螟监测数据,应用地统计学方法和地理信息系统技术,分析了田间蛾量的空间结构参数,绘制其空间分布图,并分析了稻纵卷叶螟的空间分布格局及其重心的时间变化特点。结果表明,稻纵卷叶螟的分布具有显著的空间自相关性和空间连续性,空间相关距离在1 000 km左右。稻纵卷叶螟在宏观尺度呈现显著的南北向和东西向变化特征,而且这种格局随着时间变化而变化。5-8月,稻纵卷叶螟集中爆发区和分布重心不断北移,9-10月不断南移。以南雄市站点为代表的华南稻区呈现双迁入峰,以高邮市站点为代表的长江中下游稻区呈现单迁入峰。说明基于地统计学的空间分析技术,能够有效地获取稻纵卷叶螟的时空分布信息,从而为及时掌握害虫种群动态和早期预报预警提供参考。

The rice leaf roller（ Cnaphalocrocis medinalis） is a major migration pest in China,causing serious damages to rice production. In order to make researches on its spatio-temporal patterns,based on geostatistics and geographical information system,the spatial patterns of the rice leaf rollers and their dynamical changes were analyzed,and their spatial structures features in 2013 were obtained. The monitoring data from the south rice area,China,observed in 2013 were taken for example. The spatial distribution patterns and the gravity centers of rice leaf rollers were mapped. The results showed that the rice leaf rollers was aggregated in space and had marked auto-correlation and spatial continuity,and the average spatial correlated range was about 1 000 km. The rice leaf rollers had obviously both of zonal and meridional spatial distribution,which changed with time. From May to August,the hard-hit areas and gravity centers of rice leaf rollers continuously migrated northward,while they migrated southward during September to October. In southern China,like Nanxiong station,rice leaf rollers had double peaks during one year. And in the Middle-lower Reaches of Yangtze River Basin,like Gaoyou station,they had only one peak. The results of this paper illustrated that spatial analysis technology based on geostatistics could provide strong evidence for spatio-temporal characteristics of riceleaf rollers and supply scientific foundation for population dynamics monitoring and early warning.