溃坝应急撤离研究与实践综述

Overview on research and practice of dam failure emergency evacuation

溃坝撤离技术理论对编制撤离预案和指导撤离行动至关重要,目前研究主要集中在影响因素分析、溃坝洪水-人流-路径叠加分析、人员死亡数量规律统计等方面,但溃坝撤离基础数据不足,环境-地物-人群三元耦合过程中主要因素互馈机制不清,预警时间研究不深,相关理论发展受限。对近几十年溃坝撤离技术理论研究和实践进行综述,总结了国内外溃坝撤离实践和溃坝撤离影响因素、过程模拟、预案评价等主要成果,研究了预警时间和临界预警时间概念,展望了今后主要发展方向。应还原典型溃坝案例撤离过程,基于人类行为和社会组织机制揭示溃坝撤离系统动力学特征,探索临界预警时间与溃坝生命损失之间的定量关系,促进溃坝撤离技术理论与应用发展。

Technical theory of emergency evacuation during dam failure is crucial for making EPP （ Emergency Preparation Plans） and guiding emergency evacuation. Currently, relevant researches mainly focus on analyzing dam failure evacuation factors, overlay analysis on flood, population and transfer paths and life loss statistics. However, due to insufficient basic data of evacuation, ambiguous crossfeed mechanism of ternary coupling of environments, surface features and people and superficial study on warning time, development of dam failure evacuation theory and its practice are quite limited. Through overview of the studies on technical theories of dam failure evacuation and corresponding practice in recent decades, summarizing practices of dam failure emergency evacuation at home and abroad as well as research results in influence factors, progress simulation and EPP evaluation and studying the concepts of warning time and critical warning time, future development of dam failure evacuation is analyzed. To sum up, efforts should be made in reproducing evacuation progress of typical dam failure cases and revealing dynamic characteristics of evacuation system during dam failure on the basis of studies on human behavior and social organization mechanism, thereby to explore quantitative relation between critical warning time and life losses in the case of dam failure and facilitate development and application of technical theories of dam failure evacuation.