基于ISM和AHP方法的肼燃料库事故致因研究

RESEARCH ON ACCIDENT CAUSATION OF HYDRAZINE FUEL STOREROOM BASED ON ISM AND AHP METHODS

针对航空肼燃料库的高风险性特点,分析了肼燃料库的工作流程以及安全影响因素。以预防事故发生和减小事故损失为出发点,建立肼燃料库事故模型。采用解释结构模型(ISM)对各因素进行层级划分,明确因素间的相互联系。运用层次分析法(AHP)计算确定各影响因素的权重,从而对事故致因进行研究。通过计算和分析发现,在众多肼燃料库事故致因中空调系统故障影响力最大,对于控制肼燃料库的正常运行、避免事故发生十分关键。同时还找出了人员、管理等方面的最关键因素,可为肼燃料库的安全管理和事故预防提供理论依据和参考。

In view of the high risk characteristics of aviation hydrazine fuel storeroom,this paper analyzes the work procedure and safety influencing factors of hydrazine fuel storeroom. The model for accident causation of hydrazine fuel storeroom is established to prevent and decrease accidents. Interpretative structure model( ISM) is adopted to make hierarchical classification of various factors and determine the relationship between these factors. Analytic hierarchy process( AHP) method is adopted to determine the weight of each influencing factor and then study the accident causation. Through calculation and analysis,it is identified that the fault of air conditioning system is the most influential factors among the accident causation of hydrazine fuel storeroom. This is crucial to avoid accidents and control the normal operation of hydrazine fuel storeroom. Meanwhile,the key factors in personnel and management are figured out,which provides theoretical foundation and reference for the safety management and accident prevention of hydrazine fuel storeroom.