科学认识大城市的“人口天花板”

Scientific understanding of the “population ceiling” of large cities

讨论了城市人口承载力概念提出的四个前提条件,即经济社会发展水平保持不变、生产技术水平保持不变、受资源禀赋的约束及受环境容量的约束;指出要从动态的、弹性的和系统的视角,来科学辨识城市的"最大人口承载力"与"适宜人口承载力";应当客观认识和评价自然生态系统与技术进步的作用,城市人口承载力的提升不仅依赖于技术进步,而且取决于自然生态环境的完整性;"胡焕庸线"不是轻易能够破解的,我们更应当尊重自然和顺应自然规律,保护无价的自然环境,学会用更少的资源消耗来削减更多的生态足迹,学会用满足感高且对环境影响小的方式愉悦地生活。

This study discusses four prerequisites put forward in the concept of urban population bearing capacity.These are：economic and social development remains unchanged; the production technical level remains unchanged; constraints of resource endowment are upheld; and environmental capacity constraints are recognized.The authors point out that from a dynamic, flexible, and systematic perspective, scientifically identifying the ＂maximum urban population bearing capacity＂ and the ＂appropriate urban population bearing capacity＂ requires an objective understanding and evaluation of the role of natural ecological systems and technological progress, and that the improvement of urban population bearing capacity relies not only on technological progress but also on the integrity of the natural ecological environment.The ＂HU Huan-Yong line＂ is not easy to crack.We argue that we should respect and comply with the laws of nature, protect priceless natural environments, learn to use fewer resources in order to reduce ecological footprints, and learn to gain high satisfaction and live a happier life by having less of an impact on the environment.