技术进步与人口年龄结构对出口的影响研究

Impact of technological progress and population age structure on export

在人口红利优势逐渐消失的大背景下,技术进步能否取代人口优势成为拉动中国出口增长的动力来源,值得大家关注。基于区域视角,分别利用固定效应和随机效应模型对全国29个省1993—2014年的数据进行实证检验,试图分析技术进步与人口年龄结构对出口的影响。研究表明:技术进步对东部地区出口贸易的发展具有明显的促进作用,但对中西部地区出口的影响并不显著。高人口抚养比对东部出口贸易具有抑制作用,对中西部地区的出口却存在正向的促进关系。

As demographic dividend advantage gradually disappears, whether technological progress replace population advantage as a driving force for China＇s export growth is drawn everyone＇s attention. Based on the regional perspective, this paper uses the fixed effect and random effects model to test the data of 29 provinces in 1993--2014, trying to analyze the impact of technological progress and population age structure on exports. The results show that technological progress has a significant role in promoting the development of export trade in the eastern region, but it has no significant impact on the export of the central and western regions. High population dependency ratio has a positive effect on the export trade of the East, but has a positive effect on the export of the central and western regions.