基于收益-风险的绿色建筑需求侧演化博弈分析

Evolutionary game analysis of green building demand side based on profit risk

绿色建筑是建筑业未来发展的重要方向,在开发商与业主具有有限理性的前提下,建立绿色建筑需求侧演化博弈模型。对博弈模型的研究表明,系统的稳定状态与开发绿色建筑相关的增量成本、增量收益和增量风险等因素密切相关。在此基础上,建立系统动力学仿真模型,借助数据仿真分析典型情形下绿色建筑需求侧博弈双方行为的动态变化,进一步验证绿色建筑需求侧演化博弈模型的理论分析结论。促进绿色建筑项目发展重点是增加开发商和业主在绿色建筑项目的增量收益。

Green building is an important future development trend of construction industry. Based on the assumption that the developers and owners are rational to some extent, an evolutionary game model of green building demand side is established. Research results on the game model show that the evolutionary stable strategies are closely related to those factors such as incremental cost, incremental revenue and incremental risk. On the basis of this analysis, the simulation model of system dynamics is established and the dynamic changes in behaviors of both sides of game can be analyzed by data simulation analysis. Simulation results further validate the theoretical analysis results from the evolutionary game model of green building demand side. To promote the developments of green building projects, it is very important to increase the incremental revenue of developers and owners in the green building projects.