本币币值低估、金融发展与经济增长

Currency Undervaluation,Financial Development and Economic Growth

本文基于两部门的小国开放模型,证明本币币值低估在一定程度上能够纠正金融部门的扭曲,通过同时提升可贸易部门的生产率和份额以促进经济增长,并且这一效果对借贷约束越紧的国家越明显。我们利用1980-2011年的跨国数据,对理论部分结论进行了检验,结果显示对于样本中金融发展程度最低1/4的国家,实际本币币值低估程度每增加50%,平均能提升经济增长率0.15个百分点,并且这一作用更多是通过可贸易部门内的生产率提高实现的。

This paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate undelwaluation on economic growth in the pres- ence of leverage constraint. Based on a two-sector small open economy model, this paper shows that undervalua- tion as a partial correction of the distortion in financial market, can promote economic growth through increasing the within-sector productivity and relative share of tradable sector. Meanwhile, such effect is more magnified with tighter leverage constraint. We empirically test the theoretical conclusions using cross-country data from 1980 to 2011. On average, for countries whose financial development fell below 25% of the sample, a 50% un- dervaluation can boost economic growth rate by 0. 15%, mainly through the productivity increase in the tradable sector. Moreover, such effect gets an extra 0. 075% increase with a 10% drop in financial development.