中国省区间贸易隐含PM_(2.5)的测算及其空间转移特征

Measurement and spatial transfer of China's provincial PM_(2.5) emissions embodied in trade

针对不同区域实行"共同而又有区别"的污染治理政策是实现区域联防治理大气污染的有效措施,而随着省际贸易加强,难免导致污染物在不同区域间的转移。本文采用区域间投入产出模型,对中国30省区间省际贸易隐含PM_(2.5)进行核算。结果表明,省际贸易隐含PM_(2.5)约占总PM_(2.5)排放的1/3,经济危机使得省际贸易隐含PM_(2.5)量变小,但贸易隐含PM_(2.5)在以生产计算的PM_(2.5)排放中的作用在增大。东部省区的省际调出贸易隐含PM_(2.5)主要由最终消费部分导致,而中、西、东北省区则主要为中间投入部分导致,在控制贸易隐含排放时,需对不同调出类型省区采用不同的控制方法。省际调入贸易隐含PM_(2.5)主要由中间投入过程贸易隐含PM_(2.5)构成,越来越多的产品在不同省区间共同生产完成,区域联合治污显得尤为必要。东北、西部、中部省区由固定资本形成导致的省际贸易隐含PM_(2.5)比例要高于东部省区,可见政策导向也是造成贸易隐含排放的原因之一。需重点控制省际贸易隐含PM_(2.5)排放量较高建筑业、机械设备制造业和其他服务业。除河北、山东外,东部省区均为省际贸易隐含PM_(2.5)净调入省份,中、西部、东北省区中则多为省际贸易隐含PM_(2.5)净调出省份。经济危机使得省际间净贸易隐含PM_(2.5)的转移量变小,但并未改变其转移趋势。净调入省区需相应的补偿净调出省区,或对其进行技术转移。

With the environmental problems becoming increasingly serious, the urgency of the air pollution control has attracted the attention of the Chinese government. Due to the unique natural conditions and industrial structure across different provinces, the central government should make endeavors to figure out the problems of emission reduction responsibilities. Actually, the spatial transfer of PM2.5 emissions embodied between the producer and the consumer in the production of consumable items through trade flows has the ability to undermine future climate and environmental policies. Based on the MR10 tables in 2007 and 2010, this article calculated PM2.5 embodied in interprovincial trade, and explored the corresponding spatial transfer characteristics of PM2.5 embodied emissions. The results showed that, PM2.5 emissions embodied in interprovincial trade （EEPT） approximately accounted for 1/ 3 of the country＇s total amount, and more importantly, the EEPT decreased significantly since the economic crisis in 2008, though the ratio between the PM2.5 EEPT and the production-based PM2.5 emissions increased to some extent. Moreover, PM2.5 emissions embodied in provincial export trade （EEPE） of the eastern provinces are mostly made up by final consumption, while the EEPE of the central, western and northeastern provinces are mainly composed of the intermediate input production. Therefore, in terms of the controlling on the PM2.5 EEPE, the eastern provinces should pay more attention to the final consumption, and the other provinces should focus on the intermediate input production. From the perspective of the production chain in China, PM2.5 emissions embodied in interprovincial import trade is primarily dominated by the intermediate input, which means that the regional corporation on the environment may be necessary for regional environmental policies. Furthermore, for the central, westem and northeastern provinces, the proportion of the EEPT reduced by fixed capital formation is higher than that of the eastern provinces. Therefore, for these industries, the EEPT with the highest emissions such as the construction, the machinery, and other services should receive more attention in the pollution control policy. Considering the balance of the EEPT, the eastern provinces are net importers except for Hebei and Shandong, while the central, western and northeastern provinces are net exporters. In other words, the EEPT is transferred from the central, western and northeastern provinces to the eastern ones, which is stable after the economic crisis. Finally, in terms of policy, the eastern provinces should provide financial and technological aid to the provinces where the EEPT is transferred in regional environmental policy.