基于多维视角的“城市病”诊断分析及其风险预估研究进展与发展趋势

Progress and prospects of diagnostic analysis and risk prediction of urban problems based on multiple perspectives

特大城市群地区"城市病"问题是目前国内外相关研究的热点问题。全面认识城镇化与生态环境之间复杂的互动关系,才能对特大城市群地区"城市病"进行机理性剖析,并建立"城市病"病情诊断与风险预估的方法和技术体系。本文围绕"‘城市病’病因分析—‘城市病’病情诊断—‘城市病’风险预估"的研究主线,基于多维视角评述了"城市病"诊断分析及风险预估的研究进展,并提出了目前国内外研究中存在的主要问题,包括"城市病"的形成机理尚不清晰、对"城市病"的诊断多停留在表面、"城市病"风险预估研究不平衡、研究尺度单一。最后对研究趋势进行了展望:研究方向上,城镇化与生态环境的交互作用研究将持续深入,微观过程与城市整体机能及表象内在联系的综合研究将得到强化,生态系统服务研究将在"城市病"诊断分析及风险预估发挥更大作用;研究方法上,数据获取与模型构建技术的发展将有助于推动城市问题的综合研究。

Due to the dynamic, interactive, and coupling relationship between urbanization and the ecological environment in urban areas, the study of urban problem in megacities is becoming increasingly complex and has become a hotspot area of research in China and internationally. A comprehensive understanding of the complex interaction between urbanization and the ecological environment is beneficial for revealing the mechanism and developing methods and techniques of diagnostic analysis and risk prediction of urban problems in megacity regions. Focusing on the questions of causes-diagnosis-risk prediction of urban problems, this article reviewed the progress of studies on diagnostic analysis and risk prediction of urban problems from multidimensional perspectives and identified the research trend. First, we summarized the causes of urban problems from three theoretical perspectives, including the coupling and coercing mechanism between urbanization and eco- environment, urban metabolism disorder, and loss of ecosystem services. Then, we reviewed the two approaches of urban problem diagnosis： assessment of urban health by index; and measurement of urban metabolism by ecological thermodynamic indicators. Third, we reviewed the research on risk prediction of urban problems from single risks and comprehensive risk. Finally, we identified several key issues and potential research directions based on the existing studies. Further study should be improved with regard to data acquisition and model simulation in order to study urban or urban agglomeration problems comprehensively. Such research will facilitate comprehensive geographic study and provide an important practical method for the study of human- environment relationship.