摘要
本文利用自底向上的能源需求预测模型体系,对新常态下的中国中长期能源需求总量及结构开展情景分析。结果显示:"十三五"及2021~2030年期间,我国经济增速总体呈"倾角向下"的L型特征;能源需求增速逐步放缓,预计2020年和2030年需求总量分别为48.5~49.6亿、54.3~58.2亿吨标煤;能源消费结构持续优化,第三产业和居民部门成为拉动能源增长的主要动力;在转型情景下,通过消费侧推进节能优先战略,供给侧大力发展非化石能源,能够顺利实现"十三五"及中长期非化石能源发展目标和碳强度下降目标。
In this study,scenario analysis was made on the total and structure of 13 th FYP and mid-long term energy demand in China by using the bottom-up energy demand forecast model system. The results show that： the GDP growth rate of China in 13 th YP and 2021-2030 period is＂tilt down＂L-type. The energy consumption will be 48. 5 ~ 49. 6 billion tce in 2020 and54. 3 ~ 58. 2 million tce in 2030. From the point of the structure,the energy consumption in the third industry and resident sector will become the main driving force. In the transformation scenario, it can successfully achieve long- term carbon intensity reduction targets and non- fossil energy accounting targets through promoting energy- saving priority strategy in consumption side and developing non-fossil energy in energy supply side.
出处
《环境与可持续发展》
2017年第1期26-28,共3页
Environment and Sustainable Development
