多元件并列运行电力系统供电可靠性评估方法

A Probability Assessment Method for Power Systems With Multiple Devices in Parallel

针对多条线路、多台变压器并列而成的供电系统结构特征和运行特性,提出了多线路、多变压器并联系统供电可靠性评估方法。在根据统计数据确认线路和变压器故障均服从指数函数分布的基础上,采用概率分析方法,分别对多条线路并列系统、多台变压器并列系统进行建模,确定多线路、多变压器并列系统可靠度、故障率和失效率。以东莞电网500kV横沥变电站和东莞变电站为例,计算结果表明多线路、多变压器并列的供电系统供电可靠度非常高,但随着运行年限的增加将逐渐减小。

Based on characteristics in construction and operation, a probability assessment method for supply systems with multi-lines and multi-transformers in parallel is proposed in this paper. Using the probability analysis method, a probability model for multi-lines parallel systems and multi-transformers parallel systems is studied on the basis of such hypothesis as that the power transformer and transmission line fault is subjective to exponential function distribution, and the reliability, fault rate, loss efficacy rate of supply systems with multi-lines and multi-transformers in parallel is determined. The 500kV substation in Hengli and Dongguan is taken for an study example, and the result shows that it is high in the probability supply systems with multi-lines and multi- transformers in parallel, however it will be decreasing with the operation period being increasing.