房价波动、收入水平对住房消费的影响——基于SYS-GMM估计方法的区域差异分析

Impact of housing price fluctuation and income growth on housing consumption: Analysis of regional heterogeneity using SYS-GMM model

基于生命周期-持久收入假说,在一般随机Ramsey模型的基础上,推导包含房价、收入和财富的住房消费函数,利用2002年至2013年31个省直辖市的面板数据,采用两步SystemGMM估计方法考察我国房价波动和居民收入水平对住房消费的影响.实证结果表明:房价波动对全国居民住房消费具有显著的抑制作用;其中,滞后期和当期房价波动与当期住房消费负相关,挤出效应明显;未来一期房价波动与住房消费变化方向一致,存在积极的财富效应;此外,房价波动对东中西部各地区居民住房消费的抑制作用存在较大差异,西部地区抑制效应最为明显;滞后期住房消费与当期住房消费变动方向一致,人均可支配收入波动和人均年底储蓄余额对我国人均住房消费都起着重要的支撑作用.

Based on the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis, the paper derives the housing consumption formula with housing prices, income, and wealth utilizing the general stochastic Ramsey model. Then, it applies a two step System-GMM estimating method to investigate the impact of the housing price fluctuation and income on housing consumption using panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2013. The empirical results show that housing price inflation has significant inhibitory effects on national residential housing consumption as a whole： the housing prices in the lag phase and current phase are negatively associated with current hous- ing consumption, and the prices in next phase has a positive wealth effect on housing consumption. Moreover, the housing consumption in the current phase always moves in the same direction as the lag phase. Among the novel findings there are also evidences indicating that income and deposit are important supporting factors for housing consumption.