江浙沪FDI与入境商务旅游关系研究

Research on the Relationship between FDI and Inbound Business Tourism in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai

在构建FDI与入境商务旅游关系假设模型的基础上,本文以1994-2014年江、浙、沪外企数量、外商投资和入境商务旅游时间序列数据为研究对象,采用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和弹性系数等方法,实证分析FDI与江、浙、沪入境商务旅游的互动关系及其差异性。研究表明:FDI和入境商务旅游存在长期稳定均衡关系和短期动态调整关系;江苏、浙江的外企数量与IBT互为因果关系,外商投资是IBT的单项格兰杰原因;上海外商投资与IBT互为因果关系,IBT是外企数量的单项格兰杰原因;IBT对外企数量的带动作用小于外商投资对IBT的带动作用;FDI与IBT的相互带动作用呈现出沪>江>浙的发展态势,这与地区本身的投资环境和发展模式密切相关。

Based on the hypothetical model of FDI and inbound business tourism,foreign enterprise quantity,foreign direct investment and overseas business tourism time series data in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai from 1994 to 2014 are chosen as the research objects to analyze the interaction relationship and difference between FDI and inbound business tourism by using the co-integration analysis,Granger Causality Test and Elastic Coefficient.The research showed that：there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic adjustment relationship between FDI and inbound business tourism;there exists reciprocal causation relationship between the number of foreign enterprises and the IBT in Jiangsu and Zhejiang,and foreign investment is the single Granger reason for IBT;foreign investment and the IBT are reciprocal causation relationship in Shanghai,IBT is the single Granger reason for the number of foreign enterprises;the driving effects of IBT on the number of foreign enterprises are less than those of foreign investment on IBT;the interaction driving effects between FDI and IBT presents the development trend of Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang,which is closely related to the investment environment and development model of the three regions.