基于决策树与蒙特卡罗模拟集成模型的石油勘探投资决策分析

The Application of Integrating Monte Carlo Simulation and Decision Trees in Oil & Gas Venture Project

针对传统决策树模型不能有效描述石油勘探投资决策的内外部风险的不确定性特征,使用概率分布函数描述受到这些风险影响而充满不确定性的参数,并综合考虑信息价值和指数型效用函数,提出基于决策树与蒙特卡罗模拟集成的石油勘探多阶段投资决策模型。最后,运用案例详细分析和验证了模型的科学性和有效性。

Because the past study of decision trees cannot describe the uncertainty and risks for oil ＆ gas projects, one method of combining Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees is applied to the oil ＆ gas ventures by considering the PDFs and the information value. Eventually, one case is studied to validate the proposed model.