基于GM(1,1)理论的穿黄工程价差预测

Price difference prediction of Yellow River Crossing River Project based on the theory of GM(1,1)

水利工程建设周期长.常因工、料、机价格变化形成价差与现行批复概算价差预备费有较大差异,从而导致投资控制陷入被动的状态。现行价差计算中价格指数计算受到时效性、地域性及价差记取基数选择的影响。不能及时准确反映实际价差。为此.本文引进GM(1,1)预测模型,以南水北调穿黄工程中建筑工程价差为例进行分年预测,并对预测结果进行分析来实现价差的准确预测。使今后批复的价差预备费储备资金能够满足价格上涨引起的概算不足,有利于工程投资的事前控制与工程前期决策。

Water conservancy project has long construction cycle,price difference is always frequently formed due to the changes of price in labor,materials and machine,which is greatly different from currently approved budget price difference reservation fund,thereby investment control is depressed in passive state.In existing price difference calculation,price index calculation is affected by timeliness,region and price difference recording base selection,and actual price difference cannot be reflected timely and accurately.Therefore,GM（1,1） prediction model is introduced,the construction project price difference of Yellow River Crossing River Project in South-to-North Water Diversion Project is adopted as an example for annual prediction.Prediction results are analyzed for accurately predicting price difference.Therefore subsequentlyapproved price difference reserve fee reservation fund can meet insufficient budget caused by price increased,which is beneficial for the advanced control of project investment and early decision-making of project.