中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易畅通障碍及潜力分析

Trade Obstacles and Potential between China and the Countries along“the Belt and Road”

过去20多年,随着中国产业结构转型和外贸的优化升级,"一带一路"沿线国家在中国对外贸易中的地位不断提升。该文基于扩展引力模型的实证研究表明,一半以上"一带一路"沿线国家与中国贸易的潜力巨大,经济规模或经济发展水平、人口数量和运输距离这几个变量对双边贸易畅通的影响显著,汇率等控制变量对双边贸易的畅通也有促进或阻碍作用。为了进一步促进中国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间的贸易发展,中国应当加强与"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易政策沟通、稳定双边贸易结算汇率,构造中国与"一带一路"沿线各国"互利共赢"的经济贸易增长格局。

Most countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂ are emerging markets and developing countries. During the past 20 years, the foreign trade relations between these countries and China have been enhanced significantly. With the transformation of Chinese industrial structure and the upgrading of foreign trade, the foreign trade position of the countries in China along ＂the Belt and Road＂ will be /urther consolidated. The empirical results which based on gravity model show that, the core variables including economic scale, economic development levels, populations and trade transport distances have significantly affected bilateral trade flows, which is consistent with the theoretical explanation. Some control variables such as trading blocs and bilateral exchange rates are also reflect the promoting or hindering effect to trade flows. In order to facilitate trade flows between China and the countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂, China should strengthen trade policy communication, stabilize bilateral trade exchange rates, and promote ＂win--win＂ growth pattern with the countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂.