奥巴马政府对外决策与中美关系中的智库因素

Obama Administration's Foreign Policy-making and the Sino-US Relations under the Influence of Think Tanks

[目的 /意义]作为政策咨询的外脑,美国智库在对华外交决策过程中起着极其重要而特殊的作用。考察美国智库的政策主张和运作是预测和分析美国外交战略和政策制定的重要观察视角与依据。[方法 /过程]采用案例分析方法解读了美国智库在奥巴马时期对华战略与政策制定中的作用。[结果 /结论 ]美国智库影响外交决策的核心路径在于通过"旋转门"机制成为政策精英,进入以国务卿为首的内阁团队和以国家安全顾问为首的国家安全委员会。由于缺少外交经验,奥巴马在对外决策中,更加倚重偏民主党色彩的智库和防务安全智库。在竞选初期,奥巴马受到知华派智库精英的影响,企图使中国分担其领导世界的霸权成本。在第一任期中,奥巴马政府接受了以新美国安全中心为代表的智库和对华强硬派智库专家的政策方案,确立了"亚太再平衡"战略。在上述战略思想的指导下,中美关系呈现高开低走的趋势,折射出奥巴马时期中美关系的反复与倒退,新一轮美国智库对华大辩论又将影响到下一届美国政府对华政策的重新定位。

[Purpose/significance] As the policy counsel, American think tanks play an important and unique role in the process of establishing American diplomatic strategy and policies. This research could provide a visual angle and experimental reference for the study on the American diplomatic strategy and policy-making to China through examining think tanks’ policy ideas and specific operation modes. [Method/process] The paper mainly adopted the case analysis method to analyze the role of American think tanks in Obama’s strategy and policymaking to China. [Result/conclusion] American think tanks exert power in the process of establishing American diplomatic strategy and policies with many ways especially via the presidential election and the revolving door mechanism to enter into the Obama administration’s foreign policy-making circle. Lacking of experience in diplomacy, Obama preferred Democratic-colored think tanks and several defense security think tanks. In the early stage of the campaign, Obama turned to think tanks of China school for guidance, trying to share the cost of hegemony with China, but failed. During the first term, under the influence of Center for a New American Security and other hardliners, the Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy came into being. Owing to the guidance of the above and the mismatch of the decision-making team to China to a certain extent, the Sino-U.S. relations presented a trend from rise to decline and some setbacks through Obama’s presidency. In spite of think tanks’ frequent interactions on both sides, today American policy elites are increasingly coming to see China as a threat or a competitor to American ＂primacy＂. A heat debating and assessing on American foreign policy towards China is launched by the U.S. think tanks, which will exert impact on the next U.S. administration’s re-orientation of foreign policy to China.