资本流动突然中断对不同负债结构国家的经济影响

The Impact of Capital Flow Sudden Stop on the Economic Growth of Countries with Different External Liability Structure

本文在IS-MP模型中引入国家对外负债结构变量,对资本流动突然中断的影响机制进行分析,然后利用26个新兴经济体2003-2015年的季度数据,以FDI占比衡量国家对外负债结构,对资本流动突然中断对不同负债结构国家的经济影响进行实证分析。结果表明,资本流动突然中断会给一国经济增长带来显著负面影响,但是对不同负债结构国家的影响不同;在发生资本流动突然中断时,一国对外负债中FDI的比例与经济增长率之间呈倒U型关系。因此,对国家的对外负债结构进行合理调整,确定FDI占比的合理区间,有利于更好地应对经济冲击,保持经济持续稳定发展。

This paper extends the IS-MP model by including the external liability structure to analyze the influential mechanism of capital flow Sudden Stop on economic performance. Based on the quarterly data of 26 emerging economies from 2003 to 2015, this paper tests the economic impact of Sudden Stop on countries with different external liability structures, which is measured by the ratio of FDI to the country＇s total external liabilities. It is found that： Sudden Stop does have a signifi- cant negative impact on a country＇s economic growth; however, different effects are associated with different external liability structures. In the ease of Sudden Stop, the relationship between the ratio of FDI and economic growth exhibits an inverted U-shape. Therefore, adjusting the external liability structure and keeping a reasonable range of FDI would be helpful for a country to cope with economic shocks and maintain a sustainable and smooth economic growth.