基于相对资源承载力模型的区域可持续发展研究——以开都河-孔雀河为例

REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT BASED ON RELATIVE RESOURCES CARRYING CAPACITY MODEL:A CASE STUDY ON KAIDU RIVER-KONGQUE RIVER BASIN

以干旱区小流域为例,利用改进的相对资源承载力模型,计算2000—2011年开都河-孔雀河流域的相对资源承载力,探讨开都河-孔雀河流域6个县市相对资源承载力的时空演变特征及差异。研究表明,改进的相对资源承载力模型在小流域具有一定的实践价值,对于拓宽相对资源承载力评价模型具有一定的现实意义。以新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州为参照区域,经济资源和土地资源是开都河-孔雀河流域的相对优势资源,而水资源则是制约开都河-孔雀河流域社会经济发展的相对劣势资源。近年来开都河-孔雀河流域相对资源人口承载状态为非常富余,经济承载状态由严重超载逐渐演变为超载,主要是受库尔勒市经济严重超载的影响。从时空关联角度分析,开都河-孔雀河流域6个县市的相对资源人口承载力差异显著,相对资源经济承载力的承载状态具有一定的稳定性。

This paper, based on a case study on a small fiver basin in arid zone, uses improved relative resources carrying capacity model to measure the relative resources carrying capacity of Kaidu river-Kongque fiver basin from 2000-2011, and discusses the temporal-spatial evolution and variance of resources carrying capacity in six citieswithin this basin, which verified the value of the improved relative resources carrying capacity model used in small river basin. Bayangol has relatively good economy and land resources, but limited water resources. In recent years, Kaidu river-Kongque river basin has an excess in population carrying capacity, but an extreme overload to overload in economy carrying capacity, mainly influenced by Korla＇s overloaded economy carrying capacity. Viewing from temporal-spatial perspective, the six cities within Kaidu river-Kongque river basin vary largely in relative resources population carrying capacity, and are relatively stable in their economy carrying capacity.