全球城市宜居性评价及发展趋势预测——以上海市为例

Evaluation and forecast of livability for the global city:A case study of Shanghai

全球城市是世界城市化发展的一个必然现象,作为城市发展的高级形态,在社会、经济、文化和政治层面直接影响着全球事务.上海作为中国现代化的引领者,提高宜居性是其建设全球城市的重要目标之一.参考已有的全球城市宜居性评价指标体系,根据现代城市发展特点对指标进行了修正,并以上海市为典型案例,结合全球城市纽约和东京的发展历程,验证了全球城市宜居性发展的N型曲线假说:即随着城市人均收入的增长,城市宜居性经历了"上升-下降-上升"的发展阶段.通过因素分解方法分析了不同发展阶段城市宜居性的主要影响因子,同时采用指数平滑法和Logistic增长模型对上海市未来30年宜居性进行了四种情景预测.以东京为参照,得出了未来30年上海能达到最高宜居性的结论,可为上海全球城市的宜居环境建设提供方向.

Global city is an inevitable form in the development of urban city,which influences global affairs directly in all aspects including sociology,economics,culture and politics.As a leader in modernization in China,improving livability is one of the most important tasks in the construction of global city for Shanghai.Based on the existing evaluation index system of global city＇s livability,modifications in indexes are made according to the characteristics in the development of modern cities.By comparison of New York,Tokyo and Shanghai,we propose and verify the ＂N-curve hypothesis＂ of livability in global cities：livability experiences ＂up-down-up＂ process with rising per capita income.Decomposition analysis is used for identifying main factors of livability during different development stages.Moreover,four scenarios based on Exponential Smoothing method and Logistic model are set to predict the development of livability of Shanghai in next 30 years.Result shows that vision according to development of Tokyo while keeping Shanghai＇s own advantages can achieve the best livability,which can be helpful for construction of livable Shanghai.