武汉市城市价值与房地产开发投资关系

Relationship Between City Value and Real Estate Developing Investment in Wuhan

城市作为房地产活动的载体,其核心竞争力——城市价值,与房地产活动关系密切。认清二者的关系有利于科学合理地制定城市发展战略及相关政策。本文以武汉市为例,首先构建城市价值评价指标体系评估武汉市1984~2014年历年城市价值指数。在此基础上,对武汉市历年城市价值指数与房地产开发投资额指数进行协整分析、Granger(格兰杰)因果检验和脉冲响应分析。结果表明,武汉市城市价值提升是房地产开发投资增长的Granger原因,且这种影响较持久;而房地产开发投资的增长对武汉市城市价值提升的促进作用并不明显。基于对以上结论的分析,提出了充分利用城市价值与房地产开发投资的互动影响以增强武汉市城市竞争力的政策建议。

City value, as the core competency of a city which is the carrier of real estate activities, is closely related with real estate activities. Recognizing the relationship between the two contributes to formulating city development strategies and policies. Taking Wuhan city for example, this paper evaluated the city value index of Wuhan from 1984 to 2014 by constructing the city value evaluation index system at first. On this basis, it examined the relationship between Wuhan city value index and the real estate developing investment by co-integration analysis, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis. The result indicates that the increase of Wuhan city value is the Granger causality of the growth of real estate investment, and this influence is more durable. While the promotion of real estate developing investment growth upon Wuhan city value is not obvious. Based on the above conclusion and analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to take full advantage of the interaction between city value and real estate developing investment to enhance the competitiveness of Wuhan city.