不确定性打击链的闭环时间表征和评估

Representation and evaluation of the closed-loop time of the kill chain under uncertainties

打击链对于形成基于信息系统的体系作战能力、提升作战效能具有重要的意义.打击链的闭环时间是衡量打击链效能的重要指标之一.实际作战过程中存在着大量的不确定因素,如何形式化表征不确定因素,对打击链效能进行评估是开展打击链研究的基础.本文依据典型作战体系和作战过程,构建了3类打击链模型,分别是链路模型、无回路网络模型和有回路网络模型.用随机方法来形式化表征完成时间、完成状况和转移状况等不确定因素,研究并给出了3类打击链模型闭环时间的计算评估方法.本文的研究结果为开展不确定性打击链的建模、效能评估与生成等提供了一定的理论基础和技术支撑.

The kill chain is important for forming system-combat capabilities based on an information system and improving combat effectiveness. The closed-loop time is one of the most important indexes characterizing the efficiency of the kill chain. The combat process has considerable uncertainties; the expression of the uncertainties and evaluation of the efficiency of the kill chain provide basic groundwork in kill chain research. In this paper,we construct three types of kill chain models based on the typical combat system and process, which are chain,network without loop, and network with loop. We then introduce three different closed-loop time calculations for the three models based on stochastic methods to express the uncertainties in the completion time, completion situation, and transformation situation of the activities in the kill chain. The results of this paper provide a theoretical basis and technical support with respect to problems in modeling, evaluating the effectiveness, and constructing the kill chain.