城市基础设施防灾能力的评估模型及应用

Assessment Model and Application for Anti-disaster Capacity of Urban Infrastructure

通过咨询专家和对文献进行分析,对城市现有基础设施的防灾能力指标进行了筛选,建立了基础设施防灾能力评价指标体系。为了充分考虑各评价指标对防灾能力影响的相对重要程度,采用德尔菲法和变异系数法确定了各指标的线性综合权重,并将线性综合权重引入灰色关联模型,以该模型定量评估城市基础设施的防灾能力。应用该模型对北京市2009—2011年的城市基础设施防灾综合能力进行定量评估,评估结果较为客观地反映了北京城市基础设施防灾能力现状,验证了该模型的客观性和可行性。

This paper established the anti-disaster capacity evaluation index system of urban infrastructure by consulting experts and literature analysis.In order to give full consideration to the relative influence degree of different indexes, Delphi method and the variation coefficient method were used to determine the linear comprehensive weight of each index, then the linear comprehensive weight was introduced into the grey correlation model（GCM）.Finally, the model was used to evaluate the comprehensive ability of urban disaster-prevention infrastructure in Beijing city from 2009 to 2011.The evaluation result reflected the situation of Beijing urban disaster-prevention infrastructure, verified the feasibility and objectivity of the model.