中国体育产业新政效果如何--来自资本市场的证据

The Evaluation of the Effect of the New Sports Industrial Policy——Based on the Data of Listed Companies from A-share Market

利用资本市场数据对新时期体育产业发展政策的效果进行评价,以中国A股市场所有体育产业股为研究对象,主要采用文献资料法和数量分析法,通过事件研究,测算体育类上市公司股票在政策发布事件窗内的异常收益来判断政策效果。研究结果显示:70%以上的体育产业股在政策发布事件窗内的累计异常收益为正;全部体育产业股票在政策发布事件窗内的累计异常收益平均值为0.047 19,t统计检验显示异常收益平均值显著大于0;以体育产业为主业的细分板块平均累计异常收益相对更高,主要涉体产业为体育产业核心层的股票平均累计异常收益显著低于外围层和相关层股票。研究结论说明:体育产业政策对体育产业上市公司带来显著正向影响,特别是将主业聚焦在体育产业的股票受益更多;包括用品、鞋服及设备制造等在内的体育产业相关层受惠于体育产业政策的程度要显著高于核心层体育产业上市公司。研究价值在于尝试了在统计数据相对缺乏的条件下利用资本市场数据对体育产业政策效果进行评价,并得出了有价值的结论,这对于后续如何完善政策措施和促进体育产业更好更快发展有重要意义。

Using capital market data,this paper assessed the effect of the development of sports industry in the new period by the methods of literature review and quantitative analysis. With all sports industry stocks in the China＇s A share market as research object,the study calculated the abnormal returns of sports listed company＇s stocks in the invent window by event study,in order to determine the effect of policy. The results showed as follows： more than 70% of the cumulative abnormal returns of sports listed company＇s stocks in the invent window were positive;the average cumulative abnormal returns of all sports industry stocks in the invent window was 0. 04719 while t test showed the average value was significantly greater than 0; sports industry＇s sub-plate had greater average cumulative abnormal return relatively; the average cumulative abnormal returns which were core layer of sports industries were significantly lower than the peripheral and related layers stock. The conclusions showed that sports industry policy had a significant positive impact on sports industry listed companies,especially the stocks which focus on the sports industry earned more; benefiting from the policy of sports industry,the related layers,including supplies,shoes,clothes and equipment manufacturing,earned more than the core layer ones. The value of this study was the exploration of the evaluation of the effect of sports industry policy by using the capital market data under the condition of the relative lack of statistical data and thus getting the valuable conclusions,which was of great significance for improving policies and measures to promote better and faster development of the sports industry.