基于客流量预测的旅游公路投建决策研究

The Investment and Construction Decision-making Research of Tourism Highway Based on Prediction of Scenic Spot Tourist Flow

旅游公路的建设能够提升景区通达性,为景区带来经济效益,同时也需要大量的资金投入.由于建设资金的限制,需要根据旅游公路收益率对实际投建项目进行决策."旅游公路收益率计算模型"通过对景区在不同旅游交通条件下的客流量进行预测,定量分析旅游公路建设对客流量的影响,计算出不同旅游公路建设项目的收益率.该模型中客流量预测以游客对景区的"旅游资源吸引力"和"旅游阻力"评价分布曲线为基础,认为游客对景区做出选择是基于对该景区的"旅游资源吸引力"评估大于"旅游阻力"评估.同时以我国西南地区某县为例,对该县旅游公路建设项目进行投建决策分析.

The construction of tourism highway can enhance the transportation accessibility and bring economic benefits to the tourist attractions, however, it should rely on mass investment.Due to the limitation of funds, the priority of investment of tourism highway should be determined based on the rate of return.The＂tourism highway yield calculation model＂can predict tourist flow of the tourist attraction under different transport conditions（whether to build or rebuild the tourist highway）, quantitative analysis the influence of tourist flow caused by the construction of tourism highway, and then calculate the yield of different construction projects.The model based on the tourists＇ evaluation distribution curve of＂tourism resource＇s attraction＂and＂tourism resistance＂in the tourist attraction, and hold the view that, visitors will choose the attraction which＂tourism resource＇s attraction＂is greater than＂tourism resistance＂in their opinion.At the same time give an example of a county in the southwest in China, where make the decision for the county＇s tourism highway construction projects.