试论特朗普政府对外政策趋向

An Initial Analysis of Trump's Foreign Policy Trends

特朗普政府内阁班底特点突出,人们可以对其决策模式做出初步判断:特朗普外交主张中的新孤立主义倾向显而易见,"美国优先"将成为其对外政策的主基调,单边主义行为将有所抬头;利益是特朗普的政策基点,务实是他的政策风格。在特朗普的理念中,"让美国再次强大"的两个层面是经济振兴和国防强大;美国的战略重心将不会发生根本性逆转,同盟关系依旧是美国霸权的重要支柱;美俄关系的改善值得关注。不过,特朗普政府对外政策的调整不得不面对美国实力下滑的趋势。特朗普执政将给中美关系带来更多的不确定性。在特朗普上台执政的初始阶段,中美关系出现颠簸的可能性较大。未来,中美之间在地缘安全、经贸和台湾问题上的竞争与摩擦将会加剧,但中美将在战略博弈与互动中相互塑造对方的行为。

On the 20th of January, Mr. Trump will get into the White House, becoming the 45th president of the US. Mr. Trump＇s policy claims during the 2016 election campaign and his unique words and deeds after elected demonstrated the differences in policy principles from those of the Obama administration. As a result, the internal and external policies of the Trump administration, especially its foreign policy trends, have become the focus of attention of all parties.