页岩气区块优选的模糊动态多属性决策模型研究

A Fuzzy Dynamic Multi-attribute Decision Optimization Model of Shale Gas Plays

页岩气作为目前最现实的可替代能源倍受各国政府和企业的高度关注。针对信息不确定下页岩气区块优选的动态多属性决策难题,在初步估测不同阶段地质资源禀赋、基础设施建设投资以及环境保护要求等不确定信息下,以优选具有商业化价值开发的页岩气目标区块为重点研究对象,从解决不同区块的投资优先次序入手,运用多属性决策、模糊优化决策和动态决策优化的方法理论,通过剖析页岩气区块优选决策过程及其复杂性特征,将页岩气区块投资优选和排序问题进行形式化描述,提出一种探索解决这种模糊动态多属性决策问题的方法,并应用到具体的页岩气区块优选问题中。本项研究不仅有助于深化不确定条件下动态多属性决策理论的研究,还为解决页岩气区块优选这一投资决策难题提供新的思路和方法。

How to select the most commercial shale gas play is the key factor of industrialization and commercialization for the shale gas industry and the top priority task of the firms that need to be engaged in unconventional gas production. This paper focuses on investment decision to optimize selection of shale gas plays under uncertainty. A fuzzy dynamic multi-attribute decision model is set up to explore the most commercial play and present the investment sequences of these plays which show the exploration orientation and investment priorities for oil companies. This paper is organized as follows： Firstly, the strategic role of shale gas exploration and production in China is introduced and its necessity of selecting the most profitable shale gas play is analyzed. Secondly, a problem to be solved is stated and the difficulties and complexities during the whole decision-making process are further analyzed. Thirdly, the dynamic multi-attribute model based on interval number is designed to explore how to select the most satisfied shale gas plays and provide the best investment opportunity, and the algorithm is given in section 2.2. Fourthly, a numerical example is shown to apply the mathematical model to select the most commercial shale gas play for the oil company according to the geological and geographical information, environmental expenditure, the principles of gas production and trend, and infrastructure investment, etc. Finally, the conclusion is presented in section 4. Whereas, the shale gas plays cannot be explored everywhere and the gas prices are not market-driven in China so that the results maybe optimistic or pessimistic. In any case, the result shows that the model is effective and practical tool for the oil company to improve the whole decision-making process.