基于“黑箱”问题的政府碳排放调控政策设计及影响分析

The Design and Effects of Government's Carbon Emission Policy under Low-carbon Economy

本文在低碳经济背景下,针对我国制造企业生产和碳排放现状,在设定经济发展速度所决定的制造企业限额碳排放约束下,构建了基于"黑箱"问题的碳排放量-环境政策模型,研究政府如何制定碳税和补贴相结合的复合调控政策以控制企业的碳排放量。通过数值仿真结果,分析企业产量、产品价格与调控政策之间的关系,得出结论:基于"黑箱"问题的碳排放量-环境政策能够在降低碳排放量的同时维持企业的发展,单位碳税和超标碳排放量并不是一定的线性关系,但是总趋势可以看出,超标的碳排放量与单位碳税是正向关系;不同情境下的单一制造企业或不同情境下的多个制造企业的单位碳税和补贴不同,政府可以设置差异化碳税和补贴;碳税和补贴的变动对产品价格的变化幅度在-1%和1.5%之间,说明可以在降低碳排放量和满足生产量的同时使现实生活中产品的价格保持基本稳定。

Under the background of low-carbon economy, according to current situation of Chinese manufacturing enterprises＇ production and carbon emission, within the carbon emission constraints determined by the speed of economic growth, this paper constructs a carbon emission environmental policy model based on the ＇black box＇ problem, and studies how the government to develop the combined composite control of carbon taxes and subsi- dies policy to control carbon emission of enterprises. Through the analysis of the design of government carbon regulation policy and its impacts on product prices, the demand of sales, comparing different carbon emission permit situations of different manufacturing enterprises carbon taxes, it comes to some conclusions： Unit carbon tax and excessive carbon emissions is not a certain linear relationship, but the general trend can be seen that the excessive amounts of carbon emission and unit carbon tax is a positive relationship. The government should adopt differential carbon taxes and subsidies to dynamically adjust them in view of the manufacturing enterprises differ- ent production quantities and carbon emissions. The regulation and control policy is based on the ＇ black box＇ problem change to product price range between -1% to 1.5% , which can reduce the carbon emissions while making product prices remain basically stable.