基于系统动力学的拆迁行为演化博弈分析

Evolutionary Game Analysis of the Behavioral Options during Demolition Process Based on System Dynamics

为研究征收拆迁中政府和被拆迁人的拆迁行为选择及其影响因素,在政府和被拆迁人具有有限理性的前提下,构建了拆迁行为的演化博弈模型,对政府和被拆迁人策略选择的互动行为及稳定状态进行了分析。在此基础上,进一步建立系统动力学模型进行仿真,分析不同因素对拆迁中双方行为的动态影响。结果表明:政府的行政成本和外部缺失对政府的决策有明显的影响;拆迁补偿费用和斗争成本对被拆迁人的行为有显著影响。可以从合理制定拆迁补偿费用、完善沟通机制、制定科学应对机制以及提升政府公信力等方面促进拆迁项目的顺利进行。

In order to study the influence factors and the behavioral options of government and people whose house will be dismantled during the demolition process, an evolutionary game model is established based on the assumption that both the government and the households have bounded rationality. The interaction mechanism between the government and households and the stable state are discussed according to the established model. Furthermore, a system dynamics model is established and the dynamic influence on behavioral options of different factors is analyzed by data simulation. The simulation results show that the administrative cost and the deficiency of public credibility have significant impact on government decision-making. The results also indicate that the compensation cost and the fighting cost affect the behavioral options of the households. Therefore, the govern- ment should design reasonable compensation mechanisms, enhance communication with households and improve the public credibility in demolition projects.