基于SD模型的南渡江水系连通系统特征及其演变规律分析

Characteristics and Variation Law Analysis of Interconnected River System Network in Nandu River Based on System Dynamics

应用系统动力学(SD)建立南渡江河湖水系连通系统模型,并分析其制约因素、寻求主要驱动因子及系统在驱动因子作用下的演变规律。结果表明,系统6项主要驱动因子中,加大水体流速与流量,增大污染物降解系数有利于提高水体纳污能力;当地表水农业灌溉供水量增加率为5%、10%、15%和20%时,地表水供水百分比达到94.27%、94.83%、95.34%和96.98%。应通过跨流域调水提高水资源调配能力和污水回用率以缓解未来南渡江供水压力;河湖水系连通可提高河湖调蓄能力,抵御洪旱灾害发生。

The interconnected river system network（ IRSN） model is established for Nandu River, and the influencing factors,main driving factors and system variation law under the effect of these factors are analyzed by using System Dynamics（ SD）method. The results show that there are six main driving factors in this system, in which, the increases of river water velocity and flow and pollutant degradation coefficient have an important role in improving the pollution bearing capacity of water body,and the percentage of surface water supply will reach 94. 27%, 94. 83%, 95. 34% and 96. 98% respectively when the increasing rate of surface water agricultural irrigation supply is 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% respectively. So the inter-basin water transfer and the increasing of wastewater reuse rate should be developed to relieve water supply pressure of Nandu River in future. The interconnection of river system can increase the storage capacity of rivers and resist against floods and droughts.