水电工程投资、工期与电价对资本金内部收益率的影响分析

Influence Analysis of Uncertainties of Investment, Schedule and Electricity Price on Capital Internal Rate of Return in Hydropower Projects

水电工程项目的资本金内部收益率(Internal Rate of Return,IRR)是投资者考察盈利能力的重要财务指标。运用敏感性分析方法,分析了资本金内部收益率与工程投资、工期和电价的变化关系及其对资本金内部收益率的影响程度,给出了在某一给定资本金内部收益率下,工程投资、工期和电价之间的关系,并建立了简化函数表达式,为上网电价定价及投资者投融资决策提供依据。

The capital internal rate of return（ IRR） of hydropower project is an important financial indicator for investors to examine profitability. Considering the uncertainties of project investment, schedule and electricity price, an influence degree analysis of above-mentioned three uncertain indices on capital IRR is conducted by using sensitivity analysis method.Furthermore, the relationship among investment, schedule and electricity price under a given capital IRR is analyzed, and a fitting simplified equation is established, which could provide a reference for quickly analyzing the quantitative relationship among them, setting electricity price and making financing decisions.