长沙市早稻生长季≥10℃积温变化特征

≥10 ℃ Accumulated Temperature Variation Characteristics in Early Rice Growing Season in Changsha City

利用1961—2015年长沙市早稻生长季(3月中旬—7月中旬)地面观测资料,采用线性统计、M-K突变检验等统计方法,对近55年长沙市早稻生长季内≥10℃积温的变化特征进行分析。结果表明,1961—2015年长沙市早稻生长季≥10℃活动积温存在明显的上升趋势,20世纪呈波动弱下降趋势,21世纪呈明显上升趋势;突变年份出现在2002年。近55年早稻生长季≥10℃活动积温均值为2 696.4℃·d,最高出现在2008年,为3 147.5℃·d,最低出现在1987年,为2 437.3℃·d,极差为710.2℃·d。

Using ground observation data in early rice growing season（mid Mar. - mid-Jul. ） in Changsha City during 1961 -2015, by linear statistics, M-K mutation test and other statistical methods, ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature variation characteristics were analyzed. The results showed that ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature in early rice growing season in Changsha City during 1961 -2015 presented an upward trend. In the 20th Century, it was a weak fluctuation decreasing trend, while in the 21st Century, a significant increasing trend was presented; the mutation occurred in 2002. The mean of ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature in early rice growing season in recent 55 years was 2 696.4 ℃ · d with the maximum（3 147.5 ℃ ·d） in 2008 and the minimum（2 437.3 ℃·d） in 1987, the range was 710.2 ℃ ·d.