近30年珠海市耕地生态安全评价及未来预测

Evaluation of cultivated land ecological security in Zhuhai city in recent 30 years and its future prediction

开展耕地生态安全评价有利于耕地资源的可持续利用与国家粮食安全。为了解珠海市耕地生态安全状况,构建了基于PSR模型的评价指标体系。运用熵值法确定各项指标权重,定量分析1985—2014年珠海市耕地生态安全值,采用等间距法将耕地生态安全级别划分为不安全、较不安全、临界安全、较安全、安全5个等级,并引入灰色系统理论预测2015—2020年珠海市耕地生态安全等级,分析其驱动因素。研究结果表明:1985—2014年珠海市耕地生态安全综合值呈U型变化,安全等级经历了较安全-临界安全-较安全-临界安全-较不安全-临界安全-较不安全-临界安全的演变历程,耕地生态安全等级于1999年之后显著转好;2015—2020年珠海市耕地生态安全综合值呈上升趋势,安全等级由临界安全发展到较安全,未来耕地生态安全水平较为乐观;人口增长与经济发展导致的人地矛盾仍是影响耕地生态安全水平的关键因素。

The evaluation of cultivated land ecological security is conducive to the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources and national food security. In order to understand the situation of cultivated land ecological security in Zhuhai City, the evaluation index system based on PSR model was constructed. Entropy method was used to determine the weight of every index, and then quantitatively analyzed Zhuhai ecological security of cultivated land value in 1985-2014, the cultivated land ecological security level was divided into five grades such as insecurity, less secure, criticality safety, relative safety, safety. In this paper, the grey system theory was introduced to predict cultivated land ecological security level in Zhuhai City in 2015-2020, analyzes the driving factors were analyzed. Results showed that, the Zhuhai ecological security of cultivated land comprehensive value showed a U-shaped curve in 1985-2014, safety - experienced relative safety - critical safety - relative safety - critical safety - tess safety - critical safety - less safety - critical safety evolution. The cultivated land ecological security level was significantly improved after 1999. Zhuhai ecological security of cultivated land comprehensive value assumed the trend ofescalation in 2015-2020, security level from critical security development to relative safety, the future level of ecological security of cultivated land was more optimistic. The contradiction between population nature and economic development was still the key factor to influence the level of cultivated land ecological security.