海南岛橡胶风害的重现期预测

Estimation of return period of rubber wind disaster in Hainan Island

研究大风极值分布的重现期是客观预估橡胶风害强度的有效方法。根据海南岛橡胶种植区1981—2010年逐日最大风速数据,采用极值Ⅰ型算法,模拟了海南岛5、10、20、30、50年一遇最大风速值分布,通过风力与橡胶风害等级表,推断了不同重现期内海南橡胶风害损失分布。结果表明,在5、10、20、30、50年一遇的重现期风速条件下,海南岛橡胶风害损失分别在5%~16%、10%~24%、16%~33%、16%~33%、24%~45%之间,而且分布范围在空间上存在明显差异。

Abstract： Studying the return period of maximum wind speed is a objective evaluation method of rubber wind damage. Based on the maximum wind speed from 1981 to 2010, the maximum wind speed for 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 years return period was calculated in Hainan Island by extreme value type I distribution function. Different return periods of rubber wind damage loss distribution were estimated through wind and rubber wind damage corresponding table. The results showed that in 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 years return period of maximum wind speed, the rubber disaster losses ranged from 5% to 16%, 10% to 24%, 16% to 33%, 16% to 33%, 24% to 45%, respectively, and the distribution of rubber disaster losses had obvious differences in space.