战略性新兴产业的就业效应与政策研究——基于对不同层次劳动力分解

The Employment Effect and Policy Research of Strategic Emerging Industries——Based on the Perspective of Labor Decomposition of Different Levels

发展战略性新兴产业的就业效应如何?其究竟是促进还是抑制了就业增长?当前,这一问题无论在理论界还是政策制定实践中都存在较大分歧。基于就业弹性与就业偏度指标的测算,本文以江苏省为例,通过对不同层次劳动力分解(将劳动力划分为高端人才和普通劳动力)的视角,分别对战略性新兴产业发展的就业总量效应和就业结构效应进行了经验研究。结果表明,近年来战略性新兴产业的就业总量效应呈现逐步减弱的态势,但并未达到饱和状态,高端人才与中低端劳动力在2009年之后出现分化效应,即战略性新兴产业的快速发展对高端人才需求越来越明显,而对中低端劳动力的就业产生了负向冲击。对此,需要坚持就业优先的宏观经济政策,推进战略性新兴产业与传统产业的协同发展,提升人才与战略性新兴产业发展需求间的协调度和匹配度,强化体制和机制创新,挖掘战略性新兴产业发展所需的新人口红利,实现战略性新兴产业发展与就业提升的良性互动。

What is the employment effect of developing strategic emerging industries？ Whether it is to promote or inhibit the employment？ At present, there are great differences both in theory and in practice of policy making. Based on the calculation of employment elasticity and employment bias indexes, this paper takes Jiangsu province as an example, through the perspective of decomposing different levels of labor（the workforce is divided into high-end talent labor and general labor）, conducting empirical research on the effect both total employment and employment structure of the development of strategic emerging industries. Result shows that in recent years, the total employment effect of strategic emerging industries has showed the situation of gradual weakening, but doesn＇t reach saturation state, at the same time, high-end talent and low-end labor shows differentiation effect after 2009, that is, with the rapid development of strategic emerging industries, the demand for high-end talent is more and more obvious, and the employment of low-end labor is subjected to negative impact. For this, these policies should be made involving the macroeconomic policy of giving priority to employment, promoting the coordinated development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries, enhancing the coordination and matching degree between the talent and the development needs of strategic emerging industries, strengthening system and mechanism innovation, and then mining the new demographic dividend needed for the development of strategic emerging industries, realizing the positive interaction between the development of strategic emerging industries and the promotion of employment.