潜在上访行为选择与中国社会矛盾走向--基于东南沿海地区大样本调查的实证研究

Potential Petitions and the Trend of China's Social Conflicts:An Empirical Study Based on a Survey in Southeast China

东南沿海E市新区1%常住户抽样调查显示,98%以上的受访者对上访行为表示理解;在遭受利益损失或不公正对待、相对缓和的解决方式无效时,潜在的上访者比例会超过10%。排序逻辑模型回归结果说明,上访主要是为了解决问题,而非宣示政治主张;生活满意度低会导致更激烈的行为选择,潜在上访者具有社会心理学意义上的非理性特征;外地人、民企和外企人员、农民、下岗职工等体制外人群,选择上访的倾向更明显。

Our 1% household survey in a coastal city of southeast China shows that more than 98% respondents express their understanding of petitions ; when other resolutions fail to work in the case of interest loss or injus- tice suffers, more than 10% respondents choose to become potential petitioners. Regression results of the Or- dered Logistic Model further indicate that petitions are mainly chosen to solve problems, rather than to declare political ideas ; low life satisfaction leads to more intense choices of behaviors, hence potential petitioners are ir- rational in the sense of social psychology; migrant workers, staff of private or foreign enterprises, farmers and laid - off workers tend to appeal higher probability of petition.