税制结构变迁与产业结构调整:理论诠释与中国经验证据

Tax System Structural Change and Industrial Structure Adjustment:Theoretical Interpretation and Empirical Evidence in China

税制结构变迁从理论上既能直接作用于产业结构调整,还能通过内部税种调整与结构变化对产业结构调整产生影响。本文首先从理论层面系统诠释税制结构对产业结构调整的作用机制,然后通过建立动态面板数据模型,采用系统GMM估计实证考察税制结构变迁对产业结构调整的总量与结构效应,结果发现:一是商品税与所得税从总体上均有利于产业结构的优化升级,但所得税的激励效果相对更加显著;二是在商品税政策内部,增值税与营业税可以显著促进产业结构优化升级,但消费税反而会阻滞产业结构的转型升级;三是在所得税政策内部,个人所得税对产业结构调整的正向推动作用相对优于企业所得税;四是提高对外开放程度和人力资本质量均有利于产业结构调整,但固定资产投资的增加反而对产业结构调整产生负面效应。

The structural change of tax system can not only directly affect the industrial structure adjustment, but can also affect industrial structure adjustment through the internal taxes adjustment and structural changes. Firstly, this paper systematically explains the effect of tax structure on the adjustment of industrial structure. Then, through the establishment of dynamic panel data model and the application of the system GMM estimation, the paper empirically examines the total and structural ef- fects of the structural tax system change on the industrial structure adjustment. The results are as follows： In the first place, commodity tax and income tax are beneficial to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure on the whole, but the incentive effect of income tax is relatively more significant. Secondly, in the commodity tax policy, value-added tax and sales tax can significantly promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. However, on the contrary, the consumption tax will hin- der the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Thirdly, within the income tax policy, the positive effect of personal income tax on industrial structure adjustment is better than that of enterprise income tax. Fourthly, improving the degree of open- ing up and the quality of human capital are conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure, but the increase in fixed assets investments has negative impacts on industrial structure adjustment.