蔡英文上台后日本对台政策新趋势探析

An Analysis of New Tendency of Japan's Taiwan Policy after Tsai Ing-wen Assuming Office

近年来,日本通过频繁会晤台湾民进党要员、鼓吹共享"价值观"理念、"选战"暗助蔡英文、支持岛内政界对日渠道整合等手段,极力拉拢民进党向日本靠拢。特别是2016年5月蔡英文当局上台之后,安倍政权极力迫使其对此前争议议题让步,努力提升彼此经济及安保合作层次,并强化与"台独"势力的勾结。日本此举将进一步强化其在台湾问题上的影响力,与其"正常国家化"加快转型、遏制中国崛起的战略意图直接相关,亦与蔡英文当局"媚日反中"政策不无联系。不过,鉴于美国政府"不支持台独"的持续表态、对华关系在日本外交战略中的重要性、蔡英文当局尚不敢在"台独"问题上公然冒进等制约性因素的影响,近期内,日本提升与蔡英文当局关系的范围仍较为有限。

Japan has tried to woo the DPP by varied means, such as meeting DPP officials frequently, preaching shared values, helping Tsai Ing-wen secretly in the election, and supporting pro-Japan groups＇ in- tegration in Taiwan political circles in recent years. Especially after Tsai Ing-wen assuming office on May 20, 2016, Abe government aims to further strengthen its influence on Taiwan with measures including com- pelling Tsai to compromise on previous controversial issues, strengthening economic cooperation level, enhancing security cooperation secretly, and having frequent communication with ＂Taiwan independence＂ forces. The reasons of Japan＇s enhancing relationship with the DPP include the acceleration of transforming Japan into a normal state, the strategy of containing the rising China, and Tsai Ing-wen＇s policy of pro-Japan and anti-China. However, Japan has to face several restrictive factors including the stance of United States, which declares it will not support ＂Taiwan independence＂, the greater importance of Sino-Japanese relations than Taiwan-Japanese relations all the time, and Tsai Ing-wen being deterred from reckless pursuit of ＂Taiwan independence＂ nowadays, thus the relationship between Japan and the DPP authorities still faces great restrictions.