基于云模型的四川盆地气候变化时空分布特征分析

Analysis on Characteristics of Temporal-spatial Climate Distribution in Sichuan Basin Based on Cloud Model

为了研究四川盆地气候变化的时空分布特征,利用1955—2010年四川盆地内15个气象站的月降水量和月气温资料,使用高桥浩一郎蒸发公式计算月蒸发量,采用云模型描述降水量、气温和蒸发量在时间上分布的特性,运用Kendall秩次相关法分析降水量、气温和蒸发量的时空分布特征。结果显示:1955—2010年的四川盆地年度及季度降水量序列中,冬季平均降水量分布最不均匀,秋季次之;年度及季度气温序列中,冬季平均气温分布最不均匀,且最不稳定,秋季平均气温分布最稳定;年度及季度蒸发量序列中,冬季平均蒸发量分布最不均匀,多年平均蒸发量序列分布最均匀;年度及季度降水量均呈下降趋势;年度及季度气温中除夏季平均气温呈下降趋势外,其余均呈上升趋势;年度与秋季蒸发量呈下降趋势,春、夏、冬3个季节的平均蒸发量呈上升趋势。对四川盆地气候变化时空分布特征的分析,可为该地区的气候变化研究提供参考与技术支持。

In order to study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of climate change in Sichuan Basin, based on the monthly precipitation and monthly air temperature data of 15 meteorological stations in the Sichuan Basin from 1955 to 2010, monthly evaporation was calculated using the Takahashi Koichiro evaporation equation. The cloud model is used to describe the distribution of precipitation, temperature and evaporation in time. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation, air tempera- ture and evaporation were analyzed by Kendall rank correlation method. The results show that the distribution of precipitation is the most uneven in the annual and seasonal precipitation series from 1955 to 2010, followed by in autumn. In the annual and quarterly tempera- ture series, the winter temperature distribution is the most uneven and the most unstable, but the autumn temperature distribution is the most stable. In the annual and quarter evaporation series, the distribution of evaporation in winter is the most uneven, and the annual e- vaporation is most evenly distributed. The annual and quarterly precipitation has been declining. In the annual and seasonal tempera- ture, except the summer temperature, the others are on the ascending trend. The annual and autumn evapotranspiration showed a de- creasing trend, and the evaporation in spring, summer and winter showed an increasing trend. The analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of climate change in Sichuan Basin can provide scientific reference and technical support for climate change research in this region.