核电厂及设备的寿期和剩余寿期预测分析方法的研究

Prediction Method Study for Whole and Residual Life of Nuclear Power Plant and Its Related Equipments

截至目前,全世界已有450多座在运核电厂,其中相当一部分核电厂是70年代建造的,这些核电厂已达到或接近预定寿期,在这种情况下,不对其设备进行寿期预测、评估而继续运行,对安全是极为不利的。而对于还没有到预定寿期的核电厂,为了安全管理的需要,其设备的寿期及剩余寿期也应预测。同时,也应对设备运行及核电厂运行的经济性如何这些人们普遍关心的问题进行预测。该文的目的是给出核电厂及其设备寿期与剩余寿期的预测方法。其方法是:通过对核电厂运行的经济性分析,给出预测核电厂寿期的方法;通过损坏计算法和概率统计法及设备运行费用经济性分析的方法给出核电厂的设备寿期与剩余寿期的预测方法;结果是:正确地给出了核电厂及其设备寿期与剩余寿期的预测方法;结论是:该方法适用于核电厂及设备,也适用于其他行业如化工行业的设施及设备。

Hitherto more than 450 nuclear power plants were put into operation among which quite a few built in the 1970s achieve or approach expected life. In this situation, corresponding nuclear power plants and equipments life prediction and further evaluating operation feasibility are necessary to meet safety demand. Furthermore, for the sake of safe management consideration, nuclear power plants equipments residual life prediction should also be implemented on those without achieving expected life. Meanwhile, the economics of equipments operation as well as nuclear power plants operation that peoples have all been focus should be prediction also. This paper aims to offer prediction method for whole and residual life of nuclear power plant and its related equipments.This paper identifies economic analysis. nuclear power plant life prediction method through plant operation Moreover, basing on method of damage calculation and the probability statistical method as well as plant equipments operation economical analysis method, we can give the prediction method of whole life and residual life of nuclear power plant equipments. The result： the life prediction method of nuclear power plant as well as the equipments are gaven accurately. The conclusion This prediction method is proper and also applies to other fields such as corresponding objects in chemical industry.