加工贸易转型升级的路径研究--基于劳动力成本上升的视角

Research on the Path of the Transformation and Upgrading of Processing Trade in China: Based on the Perspective of Rising Labor Cost

廉价劳动力一直都是中国加工贸易所具有的比较优势,但近年来不断上涨的劳动力成本迫使中国加工贸易加快转型。本文利用2002~2013年HS 6位编码微观贸易数据,并借鉴Amurgo-Pacheco和Pierola(2008)的分解方法,计算中国对17个主要贸易伙伴国加工贸易出口增长的二元边际;通过Tobit模型实证检验劳动力成本、进出口国市场规模、贸易成本、劳动生产率、多边阻力及外部冲击等因素对中国加工贸易出口增长二元边际的影响,计算其边际效应,同时采用PPML方法对模型进行稳健性检验;其后,将二元边际按不同技术水平产品细分做实证检验。研究发现,劳动力成本主要影响中国加工贸易出口增长的集约边际,对扩展边际虽有影响但其程度甚小,其他影响因素的作用效果不一,中高技术出口产品二元边际受劳动力成本的影响低于中低技术出口产品。因此,中国发展加工贸易与实现转型升级的重点政策着力方向是从集约边际转向质量价格边际,增加产品技术内涵,同时着力加强扩展边际。

Cheap labor force has always been a comparative advantage of China＇ s processing trade. However in recent years, rising labor costs forced China to accelerate the transformation of processing trade. The previous research mainly focuses on analyzing the scale of processing trade growth, the relationship between labor cost and the export of processing trade, few have done on explaining the relationship between the two from the dual margin perspective of the processing trade growth. In this paper, by using the micro trade data of HS code （6 digits, 2002~2013） and the decomposition method of Amurgo-Pacheco and Pierola （2008）, the authors calculate the dual margin of the export growth of China＇ s processing trade to 17 major trading partner countries; the dual margin of the China＇ s processing trade export growth effected by labor cost, import and export market scale, trade cost, labor productivity, multilateral resistance, external shocks and other factors were calculated through the Tobit model. Also, the PPML method is used to test the robustness of the model. Subsequently, an empirical test of dual margin is done by different levels of technology products. The study finds that labor cost mainly affects the intensive margin of the export growth of China＇ s processing trade, while the influence is very small to the extensive margin, and the impact of other factors is not the same; dual margin of high tech export products affected by labor cost is lower than those of middle and low technology products.