中国产能严重过剩行业的经济特征——基于投入产出分析视角的考察

The Economic Characteristics of China's Serious Excess Capacity Industries——The Analysis from the Perspective of Input-output

从投入产出分析视角研究产能过剩问题,以煤炭、钢铁等七个产能严重过剩行业为对象,从定量角度用2012年投入产出表,分析了这些行业的五个结构性特征、四个产业关联特征、最终需求对总产出和增加值的生产诱发关系,用虚拟消去法分析了这些行业在国民经济中的总体影响。研究发现:这些经济特征在一定程度上揭示了产能过剩的形成原因和后果,最终需求对这些行业没有显著的产出效应,这些行业在国民经济中的影响程度在趋弱。

The issue of excess capacity in China is studied from the perspective of input-output analysis. Focusing on 7 serious excess capacity industries such as coal industry, iron and steel industry, from the quantitative point and based on the input-output table of 2012, this paper analyzes 5 structural characteristics, 4 industrial association characteristics of these industries, and the pro- duction inducing relationship of the final demand for total output and value added, as well as observes the influence of these industries in the national economy with the hypothetical extraction method. It shows that the economic characteristics reveal the causes and con- sequences of excess capacity to a certain extent, on the other hand, the final demand has no significant output effects for these indus- tries, moreover, the influence of these industries in the national economy is weakening in recent years.