政府补贴下企业采用电动汽车配送的时机与价格分析

Analysis of Timing and Price for Enterprises' Goods Distribution with Electric Vehicles under Government Subsidies

考虑成本的不确定性和政府补贴,笔者利用电动汽车的使用率反映配送服务的绿色度,将绿色敏感型需求引入实物期权分析中,建立了企业采用电动汽车配送的时机、采用时机和价格联合决策、采用时机选择和价格协商三个模型,经研究得出了采用时机和配送服务价格的解析解,分析了基于配送企业采用时机的政府之最低补贴额。通过研究揭示了以电动汽车的使用率和成本的风险为代表的投资特性对决策结果的影响:成本风险的增加或电动汽车使用率的提高会导致配送企业推迟投资,这使得政府需提高最低补贴额,以激励配送企业尽早投资;随着成本波动率的提高,企业采用时机的成本临界值更低,配送服务的价格也随之下降;配送服务的价格与电动汽车的使用率之间存在非单调的关系,受采用电动汽车配送的成本增长率的影响。本研究成果为分析企业何时采用电动汽车配送以及政府如何激励企业尽早投资提供参考,为加快推进电动汽车在城市配送领域的应用提供理论支持。

Considering cost uncertainty and government subsidies, this paper adopts usage rates of electile vehicles （EVs） to reflect green levels of distribution service, incorporates the green sensitive demand into real options analysis and proposes an optimal adoption timing model, a joint optimal timing and pricing model and an optimal timing and price negotiation model. This paper obtains the closed-formed solutions for distribu- tion enterprises＇ timing and pricing and the government＇s lowest subsidies based on the adoption timings. The impacts of investment characteristics represented by usage rates of EVs and cost risk on decision outcomes are underlined through research ： increasing cost risk or usage rates of EVs defers the adoption timing; this increa- ses the government＇s lowest subsidies in order to stimulate earlier investment in good distributions with EVs; an increase in cost volatility decreases the cost thresholds and hence decreases the pricing outcomes; there exi- sts a non-monotonic relationship between usage rates of EVs and the pricing outcomes, which depends on cost growth rates of using EVs for distribution. The results of this paper provide references for analyzing the timing of deploying EVs for distribution and the corresponding incentives and offer theoretical supports to promote the use of EVs in urban delivery.