机关事业单位人员退休意愿及其影响因素研究——基于我国10省市调查数据的实证分析

Empirical Study on Retirement Willingness and Influencing Factors on Public Employees:Based on the Survey Data among Ten Provinces and Cities in China

调整退休年龄是关乎劳动者退休权益的政策改革,需要深入了解劳动者的退休意愿与影响因素。本文基于我国十省市的调查数据,以机关事业单位人员为研究对象,应用多元Logistic回归模型对机关事业单位人员的退休意愿及其影响因素进行分析。研究发现:(1)在调查样本中,退休意愿为按时退休、提前退休和延迟退休的比例分别为57.4%、36.6%和6.1%;(2)在个人特征方面,人力资本水平较低(年龄越小、健康越差、学历越低)的机关事业单位人员倾向于提前退休,硕士及以上学历人群延迟退休意愿较强;(3)在家庭因素方面,家庭中独立收入来源人数越少的更倾向于提前退休,家庭独立收入来源人数较多的延迟退休意愿较强;(4)在工作因素方面,具有县处级职级和中级职称人员更倾向于延迟退休,而对工作不满意或评价为一般的人员更倾向于提前退休;(5)在养老及政策因素方面,选择机构养老的人员延迟退休意愿较强,了解单位现行退休政策的人员延迟退休意愿较弱。

Adjusting the retirement age is a policy reform related to the rights and interests of workers, so it is necessary for the policy - makers to have a deep understanding of the workers＇ retirement willingness and its influencing factors. This paper is based on the survey data from ten provinces and cities, which belongs to＂ the social and economic effects of the policy of progressive delay retirement age＂ , which is the major project of the philosophy and social science research of the Ministry of Education. This paper will take retirement will- ingness of civil servants ＆ public institution employees as a precise research group, the retirement delay will- ingness is divided into early retirement willingness, on -time retirement willingness and progressive retirement willingness. By the multiple logistic regression model to analyze the retirement intention and its influencing factors of civil servants and Public Institution employees, the paper concludes that：（1）In the sample of the in- vestigation, the proportion of retirees who were willing to retire on time, early retirement and delay retirement were about 57.4% , 36.6% and 6.1% ;（2）In the aspect of personal characteristics, the younger, the employee in worse health and lower educational level prefer early retirement, the poorer prefer delay retirement; （3）In family factors, the fewer number of independent sources of income are more likely to retire early instead of de- layed retirement ; （4）In terms of work factors, the county - level officers and those have middle - level academic titles have less progressive willingness to retire early, but those who are dissatisfied with their work are more likely to retire early ; （5）In the aspect of pension and policy factors, the employees who have the choice of community endowment and know the current policy have weaker retirement delay willingness than others.