海外艺术品投资市场的可塑性与风险评估——以“一带一路”战略为背景

The Plasticity of Overseas art Investment Market and Risk Assessment:Based on "The Belt and Road Initiative" Strategy

"一带一路"战略是实现"合作共赢"理念的伟大之举,也为海外艺术品投资市场发展提供了千载难逢的机遇。本文基于模糊层次分析法,建立政治法律环境、宏观经济状况、社会文化理念、技术水平4个子系统共14个二级指标,对影响文化艺术品投资的市场风险因素进行了量化评估。研究表明:海外文化艺术品投资市场的可塑性较强,风险总体处于中等;具体来看,政治法律环境、宏观经济状况指标风险等级较高,成为决定投资成败的关键因素,其余两个一级指标属于中等风险;在"一带一路"沿线进行艺术品投资时应尽量避开政治动荡、法治程度低、经济发展滞后的国家。在此基础上,本文提出完善相关法律法规、健全艺术品鉴定和评估机构等政策建议。

＂The Belt and Road Initiative＂ strategy, as a great move to realize the ＂ win -win cooperation＂ concept, provides a golden opportunity for overseas art investment market development. Based on the Fuzzy - AHP, the establishment of political and legal environment, economic development, social and cultural concept, technical level of 4 subsystems of a total of 14 level - two indexes, the influencing factors of culture, art investment market risk is evaluated. The results show that： the overseas cultural art investment market strong plasticity, the overall risk in the middle; specifically, the political and legal environment, the macroeconomic situation index risk level higher, become a key factor in the success of the investment, while the remaining two indicators belong to moderate risk for investment in art; Investment in art market along ＂The Belt and Road ＂ should try to avoid political turmoil, the rule of low level of economic development lags behind in this country. Based on this, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.